By: Matthew Hayes (SportingNews.com) –

There’s this little problem with a soft nonconference schedule: It only amps up expectations.

Case in point: Penn State. The Lions’ non-con schedule is the weakest in the Big Ten, and the league schedule includes the other two top teams in the league (Ohio State and Iowa) visiting Happy Valley.

In other words, a strong defense, a fifth-year senior quarterback and a whole lot of championship hopes.

“You can’t get into scheduling things; that’s not how you win football games,” Penn State linebacker Sean Lee said. “That’s not how you go through a long season. You start looking ahead, you’re going to get bitten.”

Penn State gets three softballs at home—Akron, Syracuse, Temple—before playing host to Iowa to start what could be another big season for the guy everyone wanted to run out of town in 2004. In the last four years, JoePa’s Penn State teams have averaged 10 wins a season. With the help of an ultra soft non-con schedule, the Lions will hit that number again.

First to worst

1.Illinois: vs. Missouri (St. Louis), Illinois State, at Cincinnati, Fresno State
2. Ohio State: Navy, USC, at Toledo, New Mexico State
3. Purdue: Toledo, at Oregon, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame
4. Minnesota: at Syracuse, Air Force, California, South Dakota State
5. Iowa: Northern Iowa, at Iowa State, Arizona, Arkansas State
6. Michigan State: Montana State, Central Michigan, at Notre Dame, Western Michigan
7. Wisconsin: Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford, at Hawaii
8. Michigan: Western Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, Delaware online pharmacies State
9. Northwestern: Towson, Eastern Michigan, at Syracuse, Miami (Ohio)
10. Indiana: Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, at Akron, at Virginia
11. Penn State: Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Eastern Illinois

The scoreboard

Games against I-AA teams: 9 out of 44 (21 percent)
Games against BCS teams: 14 out of 44 (32 percent)
Games against non-BCS, I-A teams: 21 out of 44 (48 percent)

Keeping score (four of six BCS leagues analyzed)

Games against I-AA teams: SEC (23 percent), Big Ten (21 percent), Big 12 (19 percent), Pac-10 (13 percent).
Games against BCS teams: Pac-10 (50 percent), Big Ten (32 percent), SEC (29 percent), Big 12 (23 percent),
Games against non-BCS, I-A teams: Big 12 (58 percent), Big Ten (48 percent), SEC (48 percent), Pac-10 (37 percent).

Five best games

1. USC at Ohio State: Buckeyes are 23-1 under Jim Tressel in non-con home games, including a 25-22 loss to Texas in 2005.
2. Notre Dame at Michigan: Watch how fast the sting of the three-win season from 2008 eases with a win over the Irish.
3. Illinois vs. Missouri: Series could end after 2010, and Mizzou racked up 92 points in two wins over the Illini the last two years.
4. Purdue at Oregon: Surging Ducks won’t need similar comeback from 2008 game in West Lafayette.
5. Michigan State at Notre Dame: Spartans have won the last six games in South Bend—three by double digits.

Five worst games

1. Eastern Illinois at Penn State: There’s really only one word for it: pathetic.
2. Towson at Northwestern: Towson has played one game against Division I competition, losing by 28 points to Navy last season. Then again, Northwestern lost to New Hampshire in 2006, so this isn’t a given.
3. Eastern Kentucky at Indiana: The dilemma for the Hoosiers: schedule the cupcake, and hope you don’t stumble around and blow it.
4. South Dakota State at Minnesota: South Dakota State jumped back into playing D-I teams last year—first time since 1984—and promptly lost to Iowa State by 27.
5. Illinois State at Illinois: In the last three years, the Illini have played Eastern Illinois twice and Western Illinois. Why not Illinois State?

Quick hits

• Well, well, well. Look at Illinois with one of the nation’s toughest non-con schedules; a group of games that underscore the lack of quality non-con games in the Big Ten. Games at Cincinnati and home against Fresno State—both after the Big Ten season—can make a potentially good season great.
• Clearly things have changed at Michigan. No Bo, no Lloyd, no competitive nonconference schedule. If the Notre Dame series weren’t set well in advance, who knows if we wouldn’t see another directional Michigan school on the schedule instead of the Irish?
• An odd combination of non-con games for Ohio State. The Buckeyes can’t get caught preparing for USC late in fall camp or during game week of the season opener against Navy. The triple option can cause all kinds of problems, and that game against the Midshipmen will be much closer than you think.
• I keep hearing about a step back for Wisconsin. Look at the non-con schedule—and how the league’s rotating schedule is overly kind to the Badgers—and Wisconsin could be playing for yet another 10-win season in a bowl game. Northern Illinois, Fresno State, Wofford and at Hawaii are four winnable games, and athletic Penn State and Illinois aren’t on the schedule. Three of the four toughest league games—Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan—are in Camp Randall.

 

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