What does this week mean for the BCS picture?

By: Pete Fiutak (FoxSports.com) —

So now what?

The No. 1 (USC), No. 3 (Georgia), No. 4 (Florida) and No. 9 (Wisconsin) teams all took it on the chin this week, and now the college football world is in upheaval even before October has rolled around.

Are we destined for a BYU vs. Boise State national championship? Is there going to be another two-loss team playing for the national title? Did these teams lose early enough for everything to change back around? Here’s what this weekend likely means going forward.

1. The Florida and Georgia losses probably won’t matter if one of them wins out.
Considering the way the SEC has won the last two national title games and considering the respect the league has gotten from the start this year, if everything else is equal, the SEC champion will be at the top of the pecking order when it comes to playing for the national title. If Florida wins out, it’ll have to beat LSU, Georgia, Florida State, and the SEC West champion, while Georgia can still win out and have wins at LSU, Florida, at Auburn, Georgia Tech, and the SEC West champion on its résumé. If either of those two runs the table, it’s in unless both Penn State and the Big 12 champion are unbeaten.

A one-loss SEC champion will get in over an unbeaten South Florida, BYU, Utah, or Boise State, and it would get the nod over a one-loss USC … but barely. However, now there’s no margin for error for the Gators and Bulldogs. Neither team will get the respect LSU received last year, and neither will get the benefit of the doubt if there’s a second loss and an SEC title. When all is said and done, the SEC champion will probably end up playing for the national championship.

2. And the big winner is …

The Big 12. All that love that went to the SEC for having five teams in the top 10 will now shift to the Big 12, who could have three teams (Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas) in the top five with Texas Tech not far behind and Oklahoma State about to rocket up the rankings over the next two weeks thanks to a layup against Texas A&M next week. Of course, everyone will start picking each other off. Oklahoma State goes to Missouri in two weeks, the same day Oklahoma and Texas square off, but for the next 14 days, everyone will be gushing over the Big 12, cementing the conference as the clear-cut No. 2 league behind the SEC. That’s important, because if this comes down to a fight between one-loss teams for who deserves to be in the national championship, it’s going to be hard to not take a one-loss Big 12 team over anyone but the SEC champion.

3. Who also benefits?

The Mountain West. For BYU or Utah to play for the national title, one has to win out and just about everyone else needs to have two losses. A one-loss USC, SEC or Big 12 champion gets in over an unbeaten Mountain West champion, but a two-loss team doesn’t. A one-loss Big Ten team probably wouldn’t get the benefit of the doubt over an unbeaten BYU or Utah.

4. Can USC still play for the national title?

That’s going to be the biggest debate over the rest of the season if the Trojans keep winning. One more loss and it’s all over, and one near-miss could become a death blow. But if Ohio State starts to rock, and that win over the Buckeyes becomes more impressive, the voters are going to blow off the Oregon State loss just because this is still USC, and the track record of performing well in big games is nearly flawless. There’s also the repeat factor. No one wants to see a USC – Ohio State Rose Bowl, and, as crazy as this might sound, there will be voters who’ll justify in their own minds the idea of putting the Trojans in the national title game because 1) they could beat anyone in America and 2) they really, really don’t want a repeat in the Rose Bowl.

However, it’ll be hard to sell USC on merit. If USC ends up playing for the national title over a one-loss Oklahoma or a one-loss Penn State, there will be a major uproar. And lock everything down if USC gets in over an unbeaten BYU or Utah after the way the Pac-10 has performed against the Mountain West this year. Of course, the Trojans have to take care of business first and win out impressively.

5. Can Wisconsin recover and still be in the national title hunt?

Maybe if everything lines up perfectly, but it’s not going to happen. The Badgers blew it, plain and simple. Saturday was shaping up better than they could’ve ever dreamed, but then they choked it all away. On the plus side, the collapse flew under the radar because of all the other upsets; the voters might have glossed over it and it might be forgotten about if the Badgers come back roaring.

There might be some thought that the Michigan game was a fluke — a one-time anomaly for a mediocre Wolverine team that had everything come together at the right moment. If the Badgers can be impressive over the next two weeks and beat Ohio State and Penn State impressively, all of a sudden they’re the head-and-shoulders favorite to win the Big Ten title. While the Michigan loss proves they can lose at any time, there’s no one else on the schedule, including Illinois and with the possible exception of Michigan State in East Lansing, that should pose any real challenge if this UW team really is good enough to beat both Ohio State and Penn State. Remember, Ohio State worked its way into the national championship last year by hanging around and letting everyone else shoot themselves in the foot. However, there’s a ceiling on this Badger team as long as the quarterback play remains shaky.

6. Who’s going to play in the other BCS games?

The BCS has to fill 10 slots, and there’s still that rule in place that states only two teams from the same league can get in. The SEC and the Big 12 are mortal locks to get two teams in, and the Big Ten, ACC, Big East and Pac-10 champions all get a spot. That leaves two spots open. The ACC and Big East have virtually no shot of getting a second team in, and the Pac-10 will probably get shut out of a second spot unless Cal or Oregon come through strong. The Big Ten might take a second spot, and in a perfect world for the BCS, that would go to the Ohio State/Penn State loser, but that might not happen if either of them blow it against Wisconsin over the next two weeks. Do unbeaten non-BCS league teams like Boise State and BYU get the final two spots, and what happens if there aren’t any unbeaten non-BCS league teams?

7. As it stands now, the national title pecking order is (for right or wrong):

1. Unbeaten SEC champion, 2. Unbeaten Big 12 champion, 3. Unbeaten Big Ten champion, 4. One loss SEC champion, 5. One loss USC, 6. One loss Big 12 champion, 7. One-loss Big 12 champion, 8. Unbeaten Mountain West champion, 9. One Cheap Alli Online Without Prescription loss Big Ten champion, 10. Two loss SEC champion. (Note: The ACC doesn’t have an unbeaten team and likely has no shot of anyone getting into the national championship.)