By: Spencer Tillman (CBS Sports) —
Ladies and gentlemen: The eating-crow award goes to the sports media.

Our friends in the press repeatedly had Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden headed for the college football pasture. Get out your dinner plates, because Paterno and Bowden have a combined 15-1 record. Penn State (9-0) is No. 3 in the BCS standings and a revived FSU (6-1) is No. 15 after a victory over Virginia Tech.
It’s another sign of college football’s wild and crazy year. Nobody expected to be where we are, and we sure don’t know how it’ll end up. As Yogi Berra put it, “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”

The BCS numbers are there to chew on. Texas’ .9981 average is the third-highest in the five years. Alabama at .9499 is a solid No. 2. Last week’s victory over Ohio State raised PSU’s average to .9257. Can we all agree that Penn State is likely to finish with a 12-0 season? Iowa, Indiana and Michigan State are the Lions’ only remaining obstacles. Rich in senior leadership on both sides of the ball, a Penn State letdown is unlikely.

Still, if the current top two win out, there’s no contest; Texas and Alabama will be playing for the national title. But there’s a caveat. Those top two contenders in the Big 12 and the SEC still have significant regular-season and championship challenges to before they’re in the clear.

So, here’s a question for you poll pundits: Is it possible for an undefeated PSU to get a shot at the national title, given the baggage of a weak Big Ten and lingering memories of the past two years’ blowouts in the BCS title game?

Could Penn State end up playing Texas? Sure, and here’s why: We still tend to ignore that BCS results are more influenced by personal judgments than computer readouts, especially after a reduction in the weight of the computer components on the overall formula. Last year the voters, coaches and a panel of, ahem, experts thought the LSU Tigers were the most deserving. That’s how LSU overcame a 13th BCS ranking and two losses to play for a national title.

What’s fascinating is that PSU has been down this road before, only to see personal decisions work against the Nittany Lions instead of for them.

In 1969, Texas and Penn State were in a position to meet for the national championship. PSU was 11-0 and ranked fourth in the AP poll. Defending national champion Ohio State held the top spot with Texas No. 2. The Buckeyes couldn’t go to a bowl because of a Big Ten rule that no team could repeat as the conference’s representative to the Rose Bowl. (By the way, when traditions fail to serve the purpose of their original intent, they should die.) OSU had only Michigan to play, and that looked like a slam dunk. The writers dubbed the Buckeyes “the team of the century.” One more victory and Woody Hayes and his bunch were in fat city.

Down in Austin, the ‘Horns had games with Texas A&M and No. 3 Arkansas. Those matchups would decide the Southwest Conference champion and a berth in the Cotton Bowl. So Paterno let the men from Happy Valley make a choice. They could gamble that OSU would lose to Michigan, putting them in the Cotton Bowl against Texas for the national title. Or they could go the sure route and play Missouri in Miami. The Lions made the shocking choice for the beach, buying into the hype of OSU’s Goliath-like abilities.

Apparently the decision also had racial overtones. PSU’s black players were uneasy about playing in Dallas. That might sound farfetched now, but the Civil Rights Act was only 5 years old. A year before, Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy had been murdered. The 1960s were replete with riots and protests against racism and the Vietnam War.

Well the PSU hard-noses watched Michigan beat OSU, leaving Texas and Arkansas to play in what was called “Dixie’s Last Stand.” Coaching legends Darryl Royal and Frank Broyles went head to head. For trivia’s sake, Richard Nixon was in the stands. The game was the last major college sporting event with two exclusively white teams.

The old shafteroo happened again in 1994, when PSU was 12-0. The Lions were left out because the Big Ten and Pac-10 were locked in to the Rose Bowl, leaving voters, not players and coaches, to decide. The AP and the coaches voted for Nebraska while the New York Times computer ranking put PSU first. It was mind over matter, again.

This bit of history doesn’t prove PSU is jinxed; the Lions have won four national championships. It does show that what was true then is also true today. Even with the convoluted BCS, emotions and impressions trump computers. The coaches and the Harris Interactive account for two-thirds of BCS rankings.

This brings me back to the here and now. There are rumors flying that Joe Paterno will retire the end of this season. He’s no spring chicken and is scheduled for hip surgery soon. JoePa would like nothing better than to go out with another national title. I’m speculating here, but here’s how things might shape up:

Even though the Big Ten isn’t a world-beater, I still think an undefeated PSU is in a much stronger position than LSU was last year. Paterno would need some help. That could come from the coaches, out of respect for what Paterno has done for the game — reinforced by university presidents who will pounce on an opportunity to celebrate Joe’s contribution to academic excellence.

If an official announcement comes down that JoePa is hanging ‘em up, the lobbying will be hot and heavy. Pressure will flow first from the ivory towers of presidents’ offices through the ADs and down to the coaches’ corner. Again, we’re looking in a cloudy crystal ball. On that score, I once read that the only redeeming value of prognostication is to make astrology socially acceptable.

Let’s wait and see.

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