The No. 1 Team We Barely Know

By DARREN EVERSON (WSJ.com) -

By its nature, college football is rife with uncertainty. Because of its massive size (120 teams), its paucity of matchups involving top teams and its reliance on arbitrary rankings instead of a playoff, there traditionally has been some question about whether the teams at the top of the polls actually belong there.

Halfway through the college football season, the No. 1 team is the Ohio State Buckeyes. Here’s what we know about them:

• Their biggest accomplishment is a 12-point home win against Miami.

• Miami also lost by 28 points at home to Florida State.

• The Buckeyes have, at least statistically, a much-improved passing attack.

• Against Miami and Illinois, the two decent teams Ohio State has played so far, the Buckeyes completed less than half of their total passes.

• The chief attribute of Terrelle Pryor, the Buckeyes’ highly prized quarterback, is his running ability.

• Mr. Pryor has not run the ball virtually at all since hurting his left leg on Oct. 2.

So in other words, the race is half over, yet we have no clue about the merits of the horse that’s out in front.

Much more will finally be known Saturday, when Ohio State plays at No. 18 Wisconsin, the Buckeyes’ first major test on the road. But for now, this team’s debatable presence at the top of the rankings—which comes at the expense of the Southeastern Conference, whose members have humbled Ohio State in the 2006 and 2007 national-title games—marks a turning point in college football. Call it chaos’s comeback.

Uncertainty temporarily left the sport with the rise of the Florida-Alabama duopoly. From November 2008 until No. 1 Alabama lost to South Carolina last week, either the Gators or the Crimson Tide has held the top spot in every Associated Press poll—a span of 29 polls. They received 1,583 of all 1,772 first-place votes, or 89%. For nearly a two-year span, there was virtually no question about who was No. 1, beyond the question of whether you preferred Alabama or Florida.

But now we don’t even know whether No. 1 Ohio State will be in the top two in the only ranking that matters: the initial Bowl Championship Series ranking.

This formula, which decides what two teams play in the national-title game, is due out Sunday and there’s been speculation that No. 3 Boise State will be on top while the Buckeyes may be as low as fifth. The Broncos’ edge, for the time being, is their higher position in the computer rankings the BCS uses.

This actually isn’t a big deal, experts say. “You definitely don’t want to get too caught up with the first ranking,” said Jerry Palm, who runs the statistical website CollegeBCS.com. “It’s a possibility Boise will be No. 1, but it’s a total red herring. They’re on their way down.”

The real question isn’t whether the Buckeyes are threatened by the Broncos, whose comparatively weak schedule in the Western Athletic Conference will ultimately hurt their standing. It’s whether Ohio State should worry about…..

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